Even after the prices on many important stock exchanges around the world have been rising for several years, experts still see good opportunities for share investments in 2018 – especially in Europe.
384 trading days are a small eternity on the stock market. In real life, that equates to about one and a half years, as David Kostin, chief strategist for US equities on Goldman Sachs stock market chart, this week, the approximately 200 participants in an investor conference of the US Bank in Frankfurt vorrechnete.
According to Kostin, for 384 trading days, there has been no major setback on the US stock exchange. Since the 1930s, there have only been two cases in which this did not happen over even longer periods of time, said Kostin, namely once in the 60s and once in the 90s. On average, according to the Goldman expert, prices on the US exchange decline roughly once every 90 days, ie by 5 percent or more.
For the Goldman strategist, this observation creates a “tactical risk” for stock trading on Wall Street. One of the few risks that many professionals currently recognize for stock investments: If the bull market, which has been on the New York Stock Exchange for nearly nine years now, does not want to come to an end, then at least a correction of the price level is likely gradually overdue.
Since 2009, stock prices in New York are rising almost unchecked. The major indexes Dow Jones stock market chart as well as S & P 500 marked last record highs churning. In Germany as well as in other important European trading venues, the trend shows a similar upward trend, although there have been some clearer setbacks in between.
The peculiarity: If you believe the analysts and economists in banks and other financial institutions, then the prospect of further rising prices is currently better than at almost any point in time of the current upturn. This is the tenor in discussions and lectures on the subject, as well as in almost all market views and comments that were circulated in the usual high numbers at the turn of the year.
The reasons for the optimism can be summed up in a jargon term that circulates on the market for some time: “Goldilocks”, or in English: “Goldilocks”. It refers to a combination of factors, each of which has a curative effect on its own, and which together, according to investment professionals, create something of a paradise for investors in the stock market: stable growth in almost all major regions around the globe, yet low inflation as well as central banks, which can continue to take their time to curb their financial turmoil triggered by the financial crisis.